Finance Think https://www.financethink.mk/en/ Economic Research & Policy Institute Wed, 15 Oct 2025 17:10:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 https://www.financethink.mk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/cropped-ft-favicon-01-32x32.png Finance Think https://www.financethink.mk/en/ 32 32 ChatGPT said: Meeting with representatives from institutions, experts, and the business community https://www.financethink.mk/en/%d1%81%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%b4%d0%b1%d0%b0-%d1%81%d0%be-%d0%bf%d1%80%d0%b5%d1%82%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%b2%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%86%d0%b8-%d0%be%d0%b4-%d0%b8%d0%bd%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%82%d1%83%d1%86%d0%b8%d0%b8/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d1%2581%25d1%2580%25d0%25b5%25d0%25b4%25d0%25b1%25d0%25b0-%25d1%2581%25d0%25be-%25d0%25bf%25d1%2580%25d0%25b5%25d1%2582%25d1%2581%25d1%2582%25d0%25b0%25d0%25b2%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b8%25d1%2586%25d0%25b8-%25d0%25be%25d0%25b4-%25d0%25b8%25d0%25bd%25d1%2581%25d1%2582%25d0%25b8%25d1%2582%25d1%2583%25d1%2586%25d0%25b8%25d0%25b8 Wed, 15 Oct 2025 17:09:05 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/%d1%81%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%b4%d0%b1%d0%b0-%d1%81%d0%be-%d0%bf%d1%80%d0%b5%d1%82%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%b2%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%86%d0%b8-%d0%be%d0%b4-%d0%b8%d0%bd%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%82%d1%83%d1%86%d0%b8%d0%b8/ Finance Think organized a meeting with representatives from public institutions, experts, and the business community on the topic “Just Energy Transition: What Are the Benefits and What Are the Risks.” Key conclusions: Economic benefits through savings in household electricity costs and increased competitiveness of companies. Cleaner and healthier environment through greater use of renewable energy […]

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Finance Think organized a meeting with representatives from public institutions, experts, and the business community on the topic “Just Energy Transition: What Are the Benefits and What Are the Risks.”

Key conclusions:

  • Economic benefits through savings in household electricity costs and increased competitiveness of companies.

  • Cleaner and healthier environment through greater use of renewable energy sources.

  • Coordination and commitment in policy implementation are crucial for a successful and fair transition.

Supported by: OSF Western Balkans, Open Society Foundations, and Instituti GAP.

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]]> In an interview for Sloboden Pechat, Blagica Petreski discusses current economic issues https://www.financethink.mk/en/%d0%b2%d0%be-%d0%b8%d0%bd%d1%82%d0%b5%d1%80%d0%b2%d1%98%d1%83-%d0%b7%d0%b0-sloboden-pecat-%d0%bd%d0%b0%d1%88%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b0-%d0%b1%d0%bb%d0%b0%d0%b3%d0%b8%d1%86%d0%b0-%d0%bf%d0%b5%d1%82%d1%80/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d0%25b2%25d0%25be-%25d0%25b8%25d0%25bd%25d1%2582%25d0%25b5%25d1%2580%25d0%25b2%25d1%2598%25d1%2583-%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0-sloboden-pecat-%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b0%25d1%2588%25d0%25b0%25d1%2582%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25b1%25d0%25bb%25d0%25b0%25d0%25b3%25d0%25b8%25d1%2586%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25bf%25d0%25b5%25d1%2582%25d1%2580 Sun, 12 Oct 2025 09:22:29 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/%d0%b2%d0%be-%d0%b8%d0%bd%d1%82%d0%b5%d1%80%d0%b2%d1%98%d1%83-%d0%b7%d0%b0-sloboden-pecat-%d0%bd%d0%b0%d1%88%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b0-%d0%b1%d0%bb%d0%b0%d0%b3%d0%b8%d1%86%d0%b0-%d0%bf%d0%b5%d1%82%d1%80/ It cannot be said that larger “municipalities always have greater capacity – there are also examples of small municipalities with good planning and discipline. The main problem is often the internal capacity for planning and phased implementation, as many municipalities start numerous projects but do not complete them. Link

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]]> ⚠ It cannot be said that larger “municipalities always have greater capacity – there are also examples of small municipalities with good planning and discipline. The main problem is often the internal capacity for planning and phased implementation, as many municipalities start numerous projects but do not complete them.

Link

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]]> Finance Think at the Second Macro-Peer Learning Event https://www.financethink.mk/en/finance-think-%d0%bd%d0%b0-%d0%b2%d1%82%d0%be%d1%80%d0%b8%d0%be%d1%82-%d0%bd%d0%b0%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%bd-%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%bc%d0%b0%d0%ba%d1%80%d0%be-%d0%b2%d1%80%d1%81%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%87%d0%ba%d0%be/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=finance-think-%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25b2%25d1%2582%25d0%25be%25d1%2580%25d0%25b8%25d0%25be%25d1%2582-%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b0%25d1%2581%25d1%2582%25d0%25b0%25d0%25bd-%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25bc%25d0%25b0%25d0%25ba%25d1%2580%25d0%25be-%25d0%25b2%25d1%2580%25d1%2581%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b8%25d1%2587%25d0%25ba%25d0%25be Sun, 05 Oct 2025 17:53:09 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/finance-think-%d0%bd%d0%b0-%d0%b2%d1%82%d0%be%d1%80%d0%b8%d0%be%d1%82-%d0%bd%d0%b0%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%bd-%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%bc%d0%b0%d0%ba%d1%80%d0%be-%d0%b2%d1%80%d1%81%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%87%d0%ba%d0%be/ 🔹 Finance Think, represented by our Blagica Petreski, took part with a presentation on our good practices at the Second Macro-Peer Learning Event, organized by World Bank North Macedonia within the #EU Trust Fund for Strengthening #FiscalGovernance in the #WesternBalkans. The event, held in Podgorica on September 29–30, brought together experts from ministries of finance, […]

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🔹 Finance Think, represented by our Blagica Petreski, took part with a presentation on our good practices at the Second Macro-Peer Learning Event, organized by World Bank North Macedonia within the #EU Trust Fund for Strengthening #FiscalGovernance in the #WesternBalkans.

The event, held in Podgorica on September 29–30, brought together experts from ministries of finance, central banks, fiscal councils, and think tanks to discuss:

💡 the revised EU fiscal governance framework,
📊 growth nowcasting and cycle synchronization,
🌱 climate risk modeling and its application,
📉 debt sustainability assessments,
🔍 Fall 2025 forecasts and the surrounding uncertainties.

Grateful for the opportunity for such a fruitful and inspiring exchange of knowledge and experiences!

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]]> Open Contracts, Honest Communities: Tracking Local Procurement for Integrity https://www.financethink.mk/en/open-contracts-honest-communities-tracking-local-procurement-for-integrity/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=open-contracts-honest-communities-tracking-local-procurement-for-integrity Sat, 20 Sep 2025 19:03:23 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/?p=15821 The general objective of the project is to enhance transparency, accountability, and political integrity in public procurement at the municipal level in North Macedonia, thereby reducing corruption risks and strengthening democratic governance. Specific Objectives Assess procurement practices in the municipalities of Prilep and Krushevo through a standardized transparency scorecard, identifying strengths and risks. Build capacity […]

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]]> The general objective of the project is to enhance transparency, accountability, and political integrity in public procurement at the municipal level in North Macedonia, thereby reducing corruption risks and strengthening democratic governance.

Specific Objectives

  1. Assess procurement practices in the municipalities of Prilep and Krushevo through a standardized transparency scorecard, identifying strengths and risks.

  2. Build capacity of at least 15 local stakeholders (citizens, CSOs, journalists) through targeted trainings on monitoring procurement and promoting integrity.

  3. Raise public awareness by simplifying complex procurement issues and engaging communities in oversight via campaigns and outreach.

  4. Foster dialogue between citizens, civil society, and local authorities through publication of municipal scorecards, a comparative policy brief, and a final public event.

Donor: European Union through Transparency International – Macedonia

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]]> Gender Pay Gap Analysis in North Macedonia https://www.financethink.mk/en/%d0%b0%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%bb%d0%b8%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%bd%d0%b0-%d1%80%d0%be%d0%b4%d0%be%d0%b2%d0%b8%d0%be%d1%82-%d1%98%d0%b0%d0%b7-%d0%b2%d0%be-%d0%bf%d0%bb%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b5-%d0%b2%d0%be-%d1%81/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d0%25b0%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b0%25d0%25bb%25d0%25b8%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b0-%25d1%2580%25d0%25be%25d0%25b4%25d0%25be%25d0%25b2%25d0%25b8%25d0%25be%25d1%2582-%25d1%2598%25d0%25b0%25d0%25b7-%25d0%25b2%25d0%25be-%25d0%25bf%25d0%25bb%25d0%25b0%25d1%2582%25d0%25b8%25d1%2582%25d0%25b5-%25d0%25b2%25d0%25be-%25d1%2581 Sat, 20 Sep 2025 18:58:20 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/%d0%b0%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%bb%d0%b8%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%bd%d0%b0-%d1%80%d0%be%d0%b4%d0%be%d0%b2%d0%b8%d0%be%d1%82-%d1%98%d0%b0%d0%b7-%d0%b2%d0%be-%d0%bf%d0%bb%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b5-%d0%b2%d0%be-%d1%81/ The general objective of the project is to produce a comprehensive and empirically grounded analysis of the gender pay gap in North Macedonia, which will provide precise and applicable policy recommendations, in line with ILO Convention No. 100 and the UN gender equality agenda. Specific Objectives To calculate raw, adjusted, and factor-weighted gender pay gaps […]

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]]> The general objective of the project is to produce a comprehensive and empirically grounded analysis of the gender pay gap in North Macedonia, which will provide precise and applicable policy recommendations, in line with ILO Convention No. 100 and the UN gender equality agenda.

Specific Objectives

  • To calculate raw, adjusted, and factor-weighted gender pay gaps using micro-data from the Structure of Earnings Survey (SES).

  • To conduct quantile decomposition analysis in order to identify differences across the wage distribution (glass ceiling, sticky floor).

  • To analyze within-firm and between-firm pay gaps, in order to determine whether inequality stems from pay-setting practices or from sectoral segregation.

  • To estimate the so-called “feminization penalty” and examine how the concentration of women in specific occupations/sectors affects wage levels.

  • To conduct consultations with stakeholders (trade unions, employers, institutions) and integrate their perspectives into the final recommendations.

  • To provide practical and context-specific policy recommendations for reducing the gender pay gap.

Client: International Labour Organization and UN Women

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]]> Concluding ceremony within EESC https://www.financethink.mk/en/%d0%b7%d0%b0%d0%b2%d1%80%d1%88%d0%bd%d0%b0-%d1%86%d0%b5%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%bc%d0%be%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%98%d0%b0-%d0%b2%d0%be-%d0%b5%d0%b5%d1%81%d0%ba/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0%25d0%25b2%25d1%2580%25d1%2588%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b0-%25d1%2586%25d0%25b5%25d1%2580%25d0%25b5%25d0%25bc%25d0%25be%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b8%25d1%2598%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25b2%25d0%25be-%25d0%25b5%25d0%25b5%25d1%2581%25d0%25ba Sat, 20 Sep 2025 15:22:01 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/%d0%b7%d0%b0%d0%b2%d1%80%d1%88%d0%bd%d0%b0-%d1%86%d0%b5%d1%80%d0%b5%d0%bc%d0%be%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%98%d0%b0-%d0%b2%d0%be-%d0%b5%d0%b5%d1%81%d0%ba/ In Brussels, under the slogan “Stand up for democracy, speak up for Europe”, the closing ceremony of the mandate of President Oliver Röpke at the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) was held.✨ The event highlighted the Committee’s contributions to strengthening democracy, the role of youth, civil society, and equality in Europe. Representatives from all […]

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In Brussels, under the slogan “Stand up for democracy, speak up for Europe”, the closing ceremony of the mandate of President Oliver Röpke at the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) was held.
✨ The event highlighted the Committee’s contributions to strengthening democracy, the role of youth, civil society, and equality in Europe. Representatives from all EU Member States and candidate countries, who had been nominated as members, took part.
🤝 Blagica Petreski, as a member of this body, was part of the ceremony, while the activities of the EESC will continue in the coming period.

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]]> Analysis and Simulations of Non-Standard Forms of Employment and the Platform Economy in North Macedonia https://www.financethink.mk/en/%d0%b0%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%bb%d0%b8%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%b8-%d1%81%d0%b8%d0%bc%d1%83%d0%bb%d0%b0%d1%86%d0%b8%d0%b8-%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%bd%d0%b5%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%bd%d0%b4%d0%b0%d1%80%d0%b4%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d0%25b0%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b0%25d0%25bb%25d0%25b8%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25b8-%25d1%2581%25d0%25b8%25d0%25bc%25d1%2583%25d0%25bb%25d0%25b0%25d1%2586%25d0%25b8%25d0%25b8-%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b5%25d1%2581%25d1%2582%25d0%25b0%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b4%25d0%25b0%25d1%2580%25d0%25b4%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b8%25d1%2582 Fri, 29 Aug 2025 18:22:13 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/%d0%b0%d0%bd%d0%b0%d0%bb%d0%b8%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%b8-%d1%81%d0%b8%d0%bc%d1%83%d0%bb%d0%b0%d1%86%d0%b8%d0%b8-%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%bd%d0%b5%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%bd%d0%b4%d0%b0%d1%80%d0%b4%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82/ The overall objective of the project is to provide analytical and simulation-based evidence on the situation of young people engaged in non-standard forms of employment and working on digital platforms in North Macedonia, with the aim of ensuring their better inclusion in the labour market and social protection. Specific Objectives To map and profile young […]

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]]> The overall objective of the project is to provide analytical and simulation-based evidence on the situation of young people engaged in non-standard forms of employment and working on digital platforms in North Macedonia, with the aim of ensuring their better inclusion in the labour market and social protection.

Specific Objectives

  • To map and profile young people in non-standard employment (freelance, platform work, temporary contracts).

  • To analyse their working conditions and access to social protection.

  • To propose policies and adjustments to the Youth Guarantee for this group.

Client: ILO

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The post Analysis and Simulations of Non-Standard Forms of Employment and the Platform Economy in North Macedonia appeared first on Finance Think.

]]> Bridging Local Voices and National Action for a Just Green Transition https://www.financethink.mk/en/bridging-local-voices-and-national-action-for-a-just-green-transition/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bridging-local-voices-and-national-action-for-a-just-green-transition Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:22:55 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/?p=15741 The objective of the project is to empower communities and decision-makers in the Western Balkans to embrace Green Industrial Policies as a pathway toward sustainable economic development and a just energy transition, by bridging local concerns with national policy-making and regional cooperation. The project’s specific objectives can be defined as: Enhance community engagement – Organize […]

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]]> The objective of the project is to empower communities and decision-makers in the Western Balkans to embrace Green Industrial Policies as a pathway toward sustainable economic development and a just energy transition, by bridging local concerns with national policy-making and regional cooperation.

The project’s specific objectives can be defined as:

  1. Enhance community engagement – Organize local discussions and events in pollution-affected or economically vulnerable areas to raise awareness and gather input on the green transition and industrial policies.

  2. Foster policy dialogue at the national level – Convene a high-level roundtable with government, civil society, industry, and academia to strengthen national consensus and policy direction on Green Industrial Policies.

  3. Promote public awareness and outreach – Publish an op-ed in national media and disseminate user-friendly infographics through social media to make the benefits of Green Industrial Policies accessible to the wider public.

Donor: Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans through GAP Institute.

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]]> Discussion with community stakeholders on a just energy transition https://www.financethink.mk/en/%d0%b4%d0%b8%d1%81%d0%ba%d1%83%d1%81%d0%b8%d1%98%d0%b0-%d1%81%d0%be-%d1%87%d0%b8%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b5%d0%bb%d0%b8-%d0%be%d0%b4-%d0%b7%d0%b0%d0%b5%d0%b4%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%86%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b0-%d0%b7/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d0%25b4%25d0%25b8%25d1%2581%25d0%25ba%25d1%2583%25d1%2581%25d0%25b8%25d1%2598%25d0%25b0-%25d1%2581%25d0%25be-%25d1%2587%25d0%25b8%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b8%25d1%2582%25d0%25b5%25d0%25bb%25d0%25b8-%25d0%25be%25d0%25b4-%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0%25d0%25b5%25d0%25b4%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b8%25d1%2586%25d0%25b0%25d1%2582%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25b7 Tue, 26 Aug 2025 19:21:24 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/%d0%b4%d0%b8%d1%81%d0%ba%d1%83%d1%81%d0%b8%d1%98%d0%b0-%d1%81%d0%be-%d1%87%d0%b8%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b5%d0%bb%d0%b8-%d0%be%d0%b4-%d0%b7%d0%b0%d0%b5%d0%b4%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%86%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b0-%d0%b7/ Today, in Bitola, we discussed the benefits and risks of the #energytransition with community representatives: stakeholders and workers from REK Bitola, local NGOs, business, and the academic community.With this, we are launching our action for a #justtransition in the energy sector, with a focus on the affected regions.We are carrying out this action together with […]

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Today, in Bitola, we discussed the benefits and risks of the #energytransition with community representatives: stakeholders and workers from REK Bitola, local NGOs, business, and the academic community.
With this, we are launching our action for a #justtransition in the energy sector, with a focus on the affected regions.
We are carrying out this action together with our partners from WEBecon Network and Instituti GAP from Kosovo, with the support of Open Society Foundations Western Balkans.
Skopje Office – Open Society Foundations Western Balkans, Prishtina Office – Open Society Foundations Western Balkans.

#justtransition #energyeconomics #upskilling #financethink #gapinstitute #webecon

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]]> FT Opinion 66 for the prices developments (MK content) https://www.financethink.mk/en/%d1%84%d1%82-%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%b2-%d0%b1%d1%80-66-%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%b4%d0%b2%d0%b8%d0%b6%d0%b5%d1%9a%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b0-%d0%ba%d0%b0%d1%98-%d1%86%d0%b5%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b5/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d1%2584%25d1%2582-%25d1%2581%25d1%2582%25d0%25b0%25d0%25b2-%25d0%25b1%25d1%2580-66-%25d0%25b7%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25b4%25d0%25b2%25d0%25b8%25d0%25b6%25d0%25b5%25d1%259a%25d0%25b0%25d1%2582%25d0%25b0-%25d0%25ba%25d0%25b0%25d1%2598-%25d1%2586%25d0%25b5%25d0%25bd%25d0%25b8%25d1%2582%25d0%25b5 Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:19:49 +0000 https://www.financethink.mk/%d1%84%d1%82-%d1%81%d1%82%d0%b0%d0%b2-%d0%b1%d1%80-66-%d0%b7%d0%b0-%d0%b4%d0%b2%d0%b8%d0%b6%d0%b5%d1%9a%d0%b0%d1%82%d0%b0-%d0%ba%d0%b0%d1%98-%d1%86%d0%b5%d0%bd%d0%b8%d1%82%d0%b5/ Според податоците од Државниот завод за статистика, инфлацијата во месец јули 2025 изнесува 4.8% на годишно ниво и 1.1% на месечно ниво. Со тоа, инфлацијата го продолжи забрзувањето коешто беше присутно и во претходните месеци (Слика 1). Слика 1 – Инфлација според индексот на трошоците на живот Извор: Државен завод за статистика. Сепак, прегледот на […]

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]]> Според податоците од Државниот завод за статистика, инфлацијата во месец јули 2025 изнесува 4.8% на годишно ниво и 1.1% на месечно ниво. Со тоа, инфлацијата го продолжи забрзувањето коешто беше присутно и во претходните месеци (Слика 1).

Слика 1 – Инфлација според индексот на трошоците на живот

Извор: Државен завод за статистика.

Сепак, прегледот на податоците за движењето на цените на храната (Слика 2), покажува дека движењето на вкупната инфлација не е главно водено од движењата кај цените на храната. Месечниот индекс на цените на храната има не-растечки тренд, којшто не е доволно воочлив поради значајната варијабилност, но е присутен. Варијабилноста произлегува од периодите на замрзнување на цените и/или маржите, во кои месечниот индекс забележува пад, но тој пад е проследен со остар раст веднаш по завршувањето на важноста на мерката. Како што покажавме во Бриф за политиките бр. 71: Има ли ефект од мерките за ограничување на цените на храната?, ефектот од ваквите мерки е краткорочен и реверзибилен, што значи дека намалувањето во текот на важењето на мерката се компензира скоро во целост со раст на цените кој настанува по истекот на мерката. Според тоа, укажавме дека потпирањето врз вакви мерки треба да се напушти.

Слика 2 – Инфлација кај храната според индексот на трошоците на живот

Извор: Државен завод за статистика.

Во склоп на групата храна, најголем годишен раст има кај овошјето (6.3%) и кај рибата и морските плодови (5.6%), додека кај сите останати компоненти растот е посмирен или негативен како кај маслата (-1.5%) и шеќерите (-2.2%) (Слика 3). Кај овошјето, веројатно се работи за помало домашно производство, ако се земе предвид дека во првото полугодие годинава извозот на овошје се намалил за 62% според количински показатели. Од друга страна, увозот пораснал за 13.9% количински и 23.3% вредносно, што укажува дека овошјето од увоз доаѓало по значајно повисоки цени, а условите на домашниот пазар веројатно овозможувале и зголемување на трговските маржи. Состојбата кај зеленчукот е поповолна, бидејќи и домашното производство било поповолно, и увозните цени биле слични како и во споредбениот период. (Види сврзана анализа во нашиот Бриф за политиките бр. 73: Што ни кажуваат маржите на овошјето и зеленчукот на зелените пазари?).

Слика 3 – Годишна инфлација кај компоненти на храната, јули 2025

Извор: Државен завод за статистика.

Оттука, сега, притисокот врз цените не доаѓа од страната на цените на храната, за што говорат уште неколку показатели. Слика 4 ги споредува месечните стапки на инфлација во јули 2025 година и тоа на вкупната инфлација и инфлацијата со исклучени компоненти од храна и енергија. Сликата покажува дека цените на сите останати производи и услуги, освен на храната и енергијата, растеле во јули 2025 година побрзо од порастот кај вкупните цени (кои ги вклучуваат цените на храната и енергијата). Ако се земе предвид дека ценовните притисоци кај енергентите беа надолни, тогаш графиконот потврдува дека притисокот врз вкупните цени не доаѓа ниту од страна на храната.

Сликата понатаму укажува дека кога ќе се исклучи непроцесираната храна, односно: свежо и замрзнато месо, jajцa, риба и морски плодови, овошје и зеленчук, тогаш цените растат помалку (1.4%), отколку кога индексот ја исклучува и процесираната храна (1.9%), која вклучува леб, сирење, масла, процесирано месо, џемови и чоколада. Тоа укажува дека процесираната храна има релативно помал пораст на цените, па кога и таа ќе се исклучи, во индексот остануваат само ставки со повисок пораст на цени (на пр., услуги), што го “зголемува” индексот. Ако се има предвид дека значаен сегмент од процесираната храна доаѓа од увоз, тогаш може да заклучиме дека нема доминантен притисок врз цените кој доаѓа од глобалниот пазар.

Слика 4 – Годишна инфлација со исклучени компоненти од храна и енергија, јули 2025

Извор: Државен завод за статистика.

Каде треба да се бараат причините за релативно високата и перзистентна инфлација?

Слика 5 дава приказ на месечниот раст на компоненти од индексот на трошоците на живот кој надминува 2%, односно кој двојно ја надминува вкупната месечна инфлација. Забележливо, овој раст е евидентен кај цените во рестораните и кафулињата (28%), туристичките аранжмани (26.6%) и услугите за сместување (14.6%), како и кај цените на останати производи и услуги кои имаат релативно пониски стапки. Иако на прв поглед растот кај цените на туристичките аранжмани и сместувањето може да е значајна сезонска флуктуација, овие услуги се на врвот на листата гледано и според годишната промена кај цените (84.1% и 29.8%, соодветно). Оттука, се чини дека сезоната не игра важна улога.

Слика 5 – Компоненти на индексот на трошоците на живот со месечен пораст поголем од два проценти, јули 2025

Извор: Државен завод за статистика.

Според тоа, се чини дека главен двигател на цените во јули 2025, како и во претходните месеци, е интензивираната побарувачка, како и сe’ уште недоволно вкотвените инфлациски очекувања. Слика 6 претставува избрани индикатори за побарувачката. На пример, во првиот квартал годинава, потрошувачката на домаќинствата растеше скоро двојно побрзо од просекот во 2024 година, главно потпомогната од високиот реален раст на платите (8.8% во 2024 и 6.6% во првите пет месеца годинава) и високиот номинален (и реален) раст на пензиите, кои по кумулативниот раст од 5,000 денари месечно за секој пензионер, денес во просек се повисоки за скоро една четвртина во однос на нивото во истиот период лани.

Во однос на реалните плати, вредно е да се обележи дека со исклучок на неколку месеци во 2022 година, нивниот раст остана позитивен (над нивото на инфлацијата) долж целиот изминат период. Сличен е заклучокот и кога се анализира буџетскиот трошок за плати и надоместоци во јавната администрација: тој следеше континуиран годишен раст и во 2024 (10.4%) и во 2025 (6%) (прво полугодие, номинално).

Незанемарливо забрзување на растот е евидентно и кај потрошувачките кредити на населението (на 10% во јуни 2025 во однос на 6% во јуни 2024). Додека, прометот во трговијата со храна, пијалаци и тутун во јуни 2025 забележа експлозивен раст од 22.5%, што е висок раст дури и ако се земе предвид ниската стартна основа во истиот месец лани.

Слика 6 – Индикатори за зајакната побарувачка во економијата

Извор: Државен завод за статистика. Сите прикажани вредности се годишни стапки на промена за наведениот период.

Сумирајќи, притисоците врз цените сè помалку доаѓаат од глобалните пазари или од страната на храната, а сè повеќе се резултат на засилена домашна побарувачка, високи реални доходи и услужен сектор кој ги коригира цените нагоре. Затоа, носителите на политиките треба да се повлечат/воздржат од интервенции кај цените на храната – кои се покажаа како краткотрајни и реверзибилни – и да преминат кон политики што ја стабилизираат побарувачката, ги вкотвуваат инфлациските очекувања и спречуваат прелевање на ценовните зголемувања преку услугите.

Во вакви услови, фискалната политика мора да биде прецизно насочена и дисциплинирана. Наместо широка и скапа поддршка (како, на пример, висок раст на пензиите) што може дополнително да ја поттикне побарувачката, потребно е таргетирање исклучиво кон ранливите групи – домаќинства со ниски примања, самохрани родители и стари лица на кои им се потребни социјални услуги – со мерки што не ја нарушуваат пазарната динамика на цените. Особена внимателност е потребна во предизборен и изборен период.

Истовремено, монетарната политика треба јасно да сигнализира дека борбата со инфлацијата останува врвен приоритет. Во услови кога растот на платите и цените на услугите покажуваат знаци на трајност, инфлацијата станува “леплива”, односно тешко се повлекува, како што е евидентно сега. Затоа, Народната банка мора да биде подготвена да ја задржи или, ако стане потребно, заостри рестриктивната поставеност – бидејќи долгорочната стабилност на цените е клучна за економската доверба и заштита на реалната вредност на приходите на граѓаните.

The post FT Opinion 66 for the prices developments (MK content) first appeared on Finance Think.

The post FT Opinion 66 for the prices developments (MK content) appeared first on Finance Think.

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